Solar activity continues to intensify. In August 2024, the average monthly sunspot number exceeded 200 for the first time in 23 years, almost doubling the official forecast:The current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) wasn’t expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be weak like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.
The last time sunspot counts were this high, in Sept.-Dec. 2001, the sun was winding up to launch the Great Halloween Storms of ’03, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so potent it was felt by Voyager at the edge of the solar system. A repeat is not guaranteed, but current sunspot counts tell us it’s possible.
Years from now, we may look back and realize that 2024 was the maximum of Solar Cycle 25. Or not; the original “official forecast” predicted Solar Max would occur in July 2025. Either way, we probably have at least 2 more years of high solar activity ahead.
Image; A composite view of sunspots in Aug. 2024. Credit: Senol Sanli
Credits to spaceweather.com
